Methodology
One number is a guess. Ten thousand is a distribution.
Every game on the slate is simulated 10,000 times. The output isn't a single score prediction — it's how often each team wins, how scores cluster, and how the model compares to the number the market is hanging.
Pull the real slate
Schedules, kickoff times, venues and market lines come straight from the live league feeds, with results from every game already played this season.
Rate every team
Each team gets a schedule-adjusted offense and defense rating plus category ranks — scoring, margin, schedule strength, form, home and road. Season splits layer in turnover margin, third-down and red-zone efficiency, penalties and sacks.
Build the matchup
Ratings are combined with travel miles, rest days, streak effects, rebound signals and the current injury report. Situational efficiency edges — turnover margin, third-down and red-zone — shift the projected margin without inflating the total.
Run it 10,000 times
Each run replays every drive with realistic scoring probabilities and calibrated randomness, producing a full distribution of final scores — not a single guess.
Factor weights
Schedule-adjusted offense
20%Points scored per game, corrected for the quality of defenses faced.
Schedule-adjusted defense
18%Points allowed per game, corrected for the quality of offenses faced.
Situational efficiency
14%Turnover margin, third-down and red-zone efficiency — how drives finish, not just how many yards a team gains.
Win-loss record & margin
14%Record, point differential and performance against expectation.
Strength of schedule
10%Opponent win percentage across every game played.
Travel & rest
8%Road miles, time-zone change, days between games and bye weeks.
Momentum & rebound
7%Win and loss streaks, blowout losses, and the bounce-back effect after a defeat.
Injury report
5%Listed players weighted by status (out, doubtful, questionable) and position value.
Discipline & protection
3%Penalty yards, sacks taken and yards per play — the hidden drive-killing edges.
Home field
1%League-calibrated home advantage, removed entirely at neutral sites.
On betting action
Sportsbook handle isn't published publicly, so the action index is modelled from real market lines, how tight they are, the stakes of the matchup and its broadcast window. It is a measure of market attention, not reported wagering volume.